by Jan Boucek
Led by the UK’s own prime minister, markets are under assault for causing all our current economic woes. Blaming “market failure”, David Cameron is trying to outbid Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband for policies to reform the market system.
But markets don’t “fail.” They respond rationally, quickly and often brutally to conditions as they find them. If they see a shortage of supply or an excess of demand, they’ll drive prices higher. Conversely, excess supply or falling demand drives prices lower. If you’re looking for villains, examine why supply is constricted or inflated or why demand is stifled or encouraged. But don’t blame the markets for responding accordingly.
For example, the onset of the financial crisis three or four years ago was largely due in the US and the UK to excessive demand for mortgages from people who couldn’t afford them. In the US, this was driven by government mandates to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do just that – pump up demand for housing. In the UK, tight restrictions on construction limited supply to a market that quite rationally came to believe home ownership was a sound substitute for more productive investment.
In both cases, the bankers’ cost of funding was distorted by deliberately low official interest-rate policies, the implicit knowledge they wouldn’t be allowed to fail and lax competition enforcement that led to the likes of Royal Bank of Scotland swallowing up competitors. The logical response by the markets was to divert money to housing, just as the politicians wanted. As soon as this folly became apparent, the banks bailed out as did the humble folk queued outside branches of Northern Rock, much to the dismay of policymakers.